Tiger loses...we lose

Did Sub-prime submarine your portfolio? Bet you saved the last kittles by stashing it in auction-rate instruments...safe-haven you thought, until you tried to withdraw the funds...ouch.

What's a poor guy s'pose to do? Not even the bond-market is safe because Tiger didn't win The Masters!

That's right...according to a WSJ report, there is a "Tiger effect" for the bond market.

Apparently, since 1997, some stat-freaks at BNP Paribas have been charting the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index, with correlations to Tigers' Masters victories.

...no, these aren't the same guys who chart the market after a Super Bowl win...that would be foolish.

So, here's the skinny... Tiger wins: buy bonds; Tiger doesn't win; sell bonds and buy Pokemon cards...no-no...I made that last part up...if Tiger doesn't win: don't buy bonds.

Here's the proof: the bond index returns over 1% when he wins, the same index gives a negative return of 0.12% when he doesn't.

So, don't buy bonds.

I'm sure the guys at BNP Paribas have a place for your money. From what I hear, they are hot on a shorting technique that works quite well...it's the Phil Mickelson theory.


Thanks for reading. Keep it in the short-grass,

JFB

Too much information

Excuse me while I rant about the loss of imagination.

The decision to televise the par-3 tournament of the Masters is wrong, and the Augusta members are wrong to allow its intrusion into this little known event.

Augusta's par-3 layout, (commissioned by Cliff Roberts to let members and special guests complete a round of golf in under an hour) has been a source for imagination and storytelling for those lucky enough to hold a practice ticket on the Wednesday of The Masters for years and years. I have been lucky enough to have seen it 3 times, and I enjoy tremendously the fact that I was personally viewing a little bit of a "secret" on those hallowed grounds of Augusta.

Imagination, and storytelling will be gone for future ticket-holders of the Par-3 event...gone is that little secret...the excitement that you are seeing something that only a few privileged folks are witnessing...

...it's gone as of today.

Let me give you an example of how will feel from now on:

BEFORE TV: Me: "Hey Joe...you should've seen the excitement at the Par-3 tournament at the Masters."
Joe: "There's a Par-3 tournament? I thought it was just a practice round of the golf course...you mean they play on just the par 3's?"
Me: "No, Joe, they actually built a par-3 golf course out there, and on Wednesday's, all the guys play a little tournament on it....they take their kids, friends...whomever...and they caddy for them....it's a riot!"
Joe: "That does sound like a good time...man I'd love to get tickets to that someday."
Me: "There were 18 holes-in-one's! Tiger hit one...it landed off the green, but had so much backspin it 4-wheeled itself back onto the green...into the hole!"
Joe: "Wow! I bet that was exciting to be there...wish I coulda gone."

AFTER TV: Me: "Hey Joe...you should've seen the excitement at the par-3 tournament at the Masters."
Joe: "Yeah, I saw a little bit of it over at Shaw's Bar & Grill. We watched a couple holes...then lost interest....you shoulda seen the Budweiser commercials though! Man, they were good!"

Me: "Oh...you don't say."

...A Tradition unlike any other...is gone.


Thanks for reading. Keep it in the short-grass,

JFB

The cannabalism of the PGA, or: Coke gets rewarded

No doubt, last week's Deutsche Bank event was a thriller, anytime you have the two most popular players on tour duking it out Mano-a-Mano, it's gonna bring drama.

That's the problem.

Thanks in part to the Fed Ex Cup, the PGA is creating a situation where they are conditioning the golf fan to be interested only when there is a lot riding on the line (vis-a-vis Majors), or when Phil or Tiger play each other.

Take this week's BMW event...it was reported that less than 200 fans lined up to see Tiger tee it up Thursday, and with the combination of rain impacting the event...and Phil not playing...the BMW is looking more like The Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech, instead of the show-stopper it was intended to be.

It's not that golf fans don't love golf, it's that the PGA is undermining their own popularity by giving the fans a reason that they have the power to prioritize what they watch (can you say hello football).

It's the reason baseball and football Unions have leverage. Unions know that if the players go on strike, fans will figure out new ways to occupy their time, and lose focus of the implied importance of every game. It makes it that much harder for team owners to recapture the audience.

So the PGA is left with this huge problem, and really no way out of it. It will mean a lot less money to fringe events (50% of next years' tournaments), and a lot more money to whatever event is on Tiger's schedule (with the implied guessing-game that Phil will be there too). The imminent danger is that the PGA is losing it's brand image, and it is becoming a bunch of individual brands (think NFL, and how they go to unbelievable lengths to protect its brand so the name is larger than the players). The PGA needs to look at all the problems the NFL players have had this year, and it won't even touch the NFL brand. It's masterful.

One tournament that is going to reap absolutely gargantuan rewards from this PGA gaffe, is next weeks Tour Championship in Atlanta. That event will be the most watched, most talked about, most exciting tournament this year. Thanks to last week's taste the fans were given of that Tiger/Phil duel, The Tour Championship will be pulling out all the stops to showcase its premier match-up.

The events big sponsor Coca Cola, will get a muche deserved redemption from last years' abrupt pullout of Tiger.

Coke's new ad campaign is all about the consumer getting rewarded from buying coke products.

But next week Coke will get rewarded...and, as the vintage ad goes: in perfect harmony.


Thanks for reading. Keep it in the short-grass,

JFB

A Year Behind the Scenes of the PGA Tour

So begins the subtitle to the latest golf-read to hit the bookshelves.

The Scorecard Always Lies- written by Chris Lewis, forecaddies its readers through the 2006 PGA Tour season.



Written in a similar-tone to the venerable tome A Good Walk Spoiled, Chris Lewis seamlessly blends the season into 14 don't-bother-me-son,-can't-you-see-I'm-reading-here chapters that encompass everything you didn't know-but wanted too, about the golfers that comprise the PGA Tour.

There is cart-path cred to backup Chris Lewis, as he has been covering golf for over 10 years, and now contributes the majority of his work for Sports illustrated.

The Scorecard Always Lies hurries the reader past all the stats and final round numbers...shuffles you past the brightly lit pressroom of sterile soundbites...and puts you right next to a fly.

That's right...a fly on the wall, as you are given an exclusive behind-the-ropes- look (with pictures!) at some of the Tours best-of's in 2006.


Thanks to the good folks at Simon & Schuster for the opportunity to read such a fantastic biography of one year in the history of The Tour. The timing to read it was fantastic, as I finished the book in my wife's room...delivery room that is...

Being just like a fly on the wall. :-)


Thanks for reading. Keep it in the short-grass,

JFB

Live Masters coverage presented by AT&T

The Masters programming will offer daily highlights, live tournament coverage, live practice range coverage, player interviews, live updates, and links to real-time scoreboards directly from Augusta National.

Enjoy! Happy Easter everyone!

JFB

College fantasy foursomes

Everyone loves to play fantasy sports games...my fave is pro football. Let me field a team and the little micromanager in me takes over. I love it! Actually my neighbor/golf bud won our fantasy football season this year. He says it's all in the coaching :-). Maybe it is, but your team is nothing if you don't have a good draft
Golf is different because it's an individual sport, so I think it'd be cool to have a fantasy golf game based on what college you draft.

Saturday, The Atlanta Journal had an excellent piece by Stan Awtry about which colleges have the hottest golfers based on the venerable World Golf Rankings.

Let's say you have a draft with 9 other guys, and you take UNLV. At the end of the season...based on the World Golf Rankings...the guy with the most players (max 4) from that college wins. As of last week, The Runnin' Reb's are number one in representation with 4 guys that are in the top 100: Adam Scott, Chad Campbell, Ryan Moore and Charley Hoffman.

Second place was Arizona St. with Phil Mickelson, Jeff Quinney, Billy Mayfair and Pat Perez.

Rounding out the top 3 is Florida with DiMarco, Calc, Villegas and Couch.

Granted, you'd want to have at most 10 guys in the league because of the concentration of high-talent at only a few colleges, but I think it would be a spirited format because it allows you to really focus on your alma-mater, or just your favorite college.

Take my favorite college Georgia Tech: I would be in 8th place based on the top 4 Techsters' scoring positions. My current foursome would be Stewart Cink, Troy Matteson, Matt Kuchar and Tripp Isenhour. The great thing about the college team format is that I would be fielding the entire GT alum, so David Duval (my favorite golfer) could crack the top 300 before the season is over and displace one of the current guys.

He's been playing well of late...how cool would that be?! Go David!!!!

Thanks for reading. Keep it in the short-grass,

JFB

Psst..need a stock tip?

Hey buddy, yeah you, get over here...you look worse-off than a fresh spinach salesman. Well buddy, this is your lucky day...why? Because I'm gonna make you money. You got a brokerage account, right? You get Golf magazine, right? Okay. Here's all ya gotta do:

The next time you're reading your Golf magazine, and you see where Phil Micklenuts has signed a new sponsor, call your broker.

And short the stock.

I'm not kidding buddy...this horse has stronger legs than Barbaro....more slam-dunks than the USA basketball team....a better track record than Dusty Baker....

Okay, that last one hurt.

I know, you say you want a sure thing, okay..how's this: Let's look at his top 3 sponsors (all of whom he's faithfully plastered over his frumpy cardigan-tattooed body over the last 5 years). Let's look at Ford, Bearing Point, and Callaway Golf.

Ford: phenominal company....if you sit on the board (not in one of their cars), or if you are Mickelnuts (in which I am assuming he is just collecting sponsorship checks...and not dividends as a stockholder). 5 years ago, F (for you home-gamers) has gone from the new-car showroom smell of $19 to the rusted-out junk-yard puke odor of $7.
Bearing Point: What was one KPMG Consulting (a top dog in its day for IT) has fallen on hard-times since the dot-bomb era. BE (todays' symbol) sat at $20 back then...now, you can find it in the bargain ailse with the Pets.com sock-puppet. It's given nothing but heartworms to investors....unless you're Mickelnuts. I wonder how much he's paid to pull that goofy visor over his bad haircut?
Finally, we have Callaway Golf, or ELY (founder's first name...cute isn't it?). This stock has had more combacks than Evander Holyfield....but it's gotten more than an ear bitten off, as it's been whacked from a high of $19 to where it languishes at $12.

So whattaya think buddy? Pretty good proof, right? I'm tellin' ya...it's golden information.

Hey buddy, gotta go, I think I just saw my new Golf issue goin' into my mailbox.


Thanks for reading. Keep it in the short-grass,

JFB

"I think I got a bit lucky."

So said Australia's own Geoff Ogilvy after completing what was a dramatic 4 days of the hardest golf anyone could imagine, viewers and players alike.

Poor Mickelson. He is once again labeled "el-foldo", as he unsuccessfully navigated his way around Winged Foot on the final day....and once again, we are being too harsh.

Golf is a lucky game.....as the greatest golfers have been humbled by putts that have lipped out, iron shots that have been tugged too hard, or drives that didn't come off the face just right....we've seen it over and over again. Why do we hold golfers to a higher standard? Baseball players gets 3 strikes......Here Phil, tee it up again, that's only strike one...

Mickelson didn't lose the US Open....he just didn't win because, (and this will be viewed as the shot that won the Open), Ogilvy caught a lucky break. Let's look at it this way: if Ogilvy's chip doesn't go in on 17, Montgomerie stays with his original iron selection on 18 and stiffs it, and Furyk doesn't second-guess himself a million times and makes his putt on 18....oh yes, and Harrington pars-in, we'd have a different winner. Suddenly, Mickelson playing bingo-bango-boingo on the 18th is not so relevant.

I think what this Open in particular should remind us, is that sports in general, are the original reality show. The only scripts written Sunday were the one's over at Callaway minimizing damage control over drivers: "Here's the new Small Bertha platinum set...featuring...no drivers....!

Yes, Geoff got a lucky break. But I think the whole golf world needs to put perspective on the outcome. Everyone in the field had lucky breaks...both good and bad....(To wit: Ogilvy only hit 3 fairways on the back nine, Mickelson hit only 2 all day, so tell me who was getting more breaks). So what makes one guys' break (good or bad) more critical than the other guy's?

It comes down to who you're rooting for in the real "Survivor".


Thanks for reading. Keep it in the short-grass,

JFB