Wednesday, November 26, 2008

We're on the bandwagon

I love college basketball. Needless to say I will be a permanent fixture on my couch, fixated on the whirlwind of NCAA tournaments going on this weekend...and that, my friends is what I'm thankful for!
The best memory I have of the college game is not a single game, but rather a progression of a small college...Seton Hall...almost 20 years ago, when I had told my colleagues that they would go "all the way to the finals"...and took bets on that happening.
As history remembers...they came to within a hair of winning it all against the Michigan Wolverines in OT. That year '89 was the stuff of legend!

Sadly, Seton Hall hasn't tore down any nets since then, they just can't compete.

Here's another thing they can't compete at: Sports economics.

A couple weeks ago, Bloomberg online posted a stat promulgated by the Seton Hall Sports Poll that golfers might not spend much money due to the recession.


A friend once told me that if you have a job but can't pay your bills it's a recession...if you lose your job it's a depression. What I'd like to know is how they came up with the sampling for this poll? I mean polls are so subjective, having more variables than the poll's original question could ever hope to satisfy.

...did they poll country club neighborhoods? Or did they poll Rick Wagoner and his liege at GM...

....ok...low blow. But you see my point! Polls aren't worth the paper they are written on. Here's the MyDailySlice skinny: if gas prices are above $4/gallon consumers won't be buying new golf shoes, they'll be buying gas. If gas is below $2 consumers will by golf gloves, tees, Nike drivers, because we can't stand to have a couple extra bucks in our pockets. That's the bottom-line.

When my colleagues sat stunned that I cleaned up that year in our NCAA pool on a team nobody had heard of, they all asked me how I had the insight to pick a team that was less than a .500 team the year before. I said it was "just a gut feeling". If I had listened to polls and the talking heads at the beginning of the year, I would have gone with the highest ranked team at the time (University of Arizona) and would have lost. Those that followed heard mentality had lost their money to me.

Point being, stats are a self fulfilling prophecy....anyone can say things are bad and it's easy to convince Joe consumer we shouldn't buy those new Nike drivers. But one day soon, news will start saying things are looking better and that it's OK to buy those golf clubs. it's time to get ahead of the curve.

It's time to stop following the herd.

Thanks for reading. keep it in the short-grass,


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